Gold & Forex Daily Brief: Wed 4 Nov 2026 (Midterms, ADP, ISM)

Today's bias: BUY dips. Gold is at 3,943 (Swissquote XAU/USD bid 3,943.30, 09:06 PKT), above today's 3930 turning point, with buyers waiting at 3900–3911 and sellers at 3984–3998.

Gold firmed overnight as the dollar slipped on early US midterm results. Reuters had spot gold up 0.1% at $3,931.24 at 08:06 PKT, with silver down 1.3% at $49.12 (MarketScreener / Reuters). In Asia, spot jumped above $3,964 before falling back below $3,940 (Goodreturns). Pepperstone's Chris Weston said a weaker dollar and a sharp fall in nominal and real Treasury yields are supporting gold, and StoneX's Matt Simpson called $4,000 the obvious resistance (MarketScreener / Reuters).

Democrats won Senate seats in South Carolina and North Carolina, two of the four they need to net for control, and prediction markets moved toward a Democratic sweep of Congress. The dollar index fell 0.3% to 101.4, the euro rose 0.5% to $1.1249 and the yen firmed to 157.63 per dollar (Yahoo Finance / Reuters). The Fed still weighs on gold: CME FedWatch shows a 78% chance of a December rate hike, Iran and the US remain far from a deal, and the October jobs report comes on Friday (MarketScreener / Reuters).

Today's plan comes from EFMS TRADE's daily gold plan for 4 Nov (GOLD WEDNESDAY PREDICTION | 04 NOVEMBER 2026), which replaces the weekly levels for today. Turning point 3929.88: above it, buyers are in control. The H1 trend is bullish inside a rising triangle, and the chart drawing shows a dip into 3911–3900 (previous day's low and trendline), then a push toward the previous day's high near 3970 and the 3984–3998 selling zone. H4 is still below the 3976–4001 fib zone, so sells are only for a rejection there. The video had no transcript yet, so levels were read from the chart drawings and are approximate.

Today's signals

None of these is live until its trigger. Zones, stops, targets and triggers are exactly as in today's plan (R:R at the second target). The upper sell at 4020–4040, the 3846–3865 demand zone and the breakdown sell below 3846 are too far from price for today. Every signal stays on this week's signal results.

Price against the weekly plan

The weekly bias is still SELL rallies, but today's daily plan leans the other way while price holds above 3930. The PDL trendline buy is about $32 lower and needs a bullish M15/M30 rejection, not a blind limit order. The selling zone is about $41 higher, above the overnight spike past 3,964, so it needs a fresh push, for example on soft US data. Yesterday's two weekly signals expired without trading. See this week's outlook for the full weekly map.

News today (Pakistan time)

Times and consensus from ZeroHedge's week-ahead calendar (New York time, converted to PKT): ADP +67k expected (last +90k), ISM services 54.9 expected (last 54.9), trade balance −$108.0bn. US data at 8:30 New York time comes at 18:30 PKT; London opens at 13:00 PKT. Next: the Bank of England decision and US jobless claims on Thursday, and the October jobs report on Friday at 18:30 PKT (+62k expected). Stay flat 15 minutes either side of high-impact releases.

Headlines

• Gold: Spot +0.1% at $3,931.24 at 08:06 PKT; $4,000 seen as the obvious resistance (MarketScreener / Reuters).
• Midterms / dollar: Democrats win Senate races in South Carolina and North Carolina; DXY −0.3% to 101.4 (Yahoo Finance / Reuters).
• Fed: December hike odds at 78% on CME FedWatch (MarketScreener / Reuters).
• Rates / oil: The RBA raised rates 25 bp to 4.85% on Tuesday; WTI steadied around $96–97 and the US 10-year yield climbed toward 4.97% on the day (Mitrade).

Other markets

• DXY: EFMS: the 101.9–102.0 selling zone rejected; demand near 101.5. Now 101.4, just under it.
• XAGUSD: Not covered by EFMS today. Silver −1.3% at $49.12.
• BTCUSD: EFMS: H4 swing buy area near 75,800–76,000, fib 61.8% near 79,700 above.
• USOIL: EFMS: H4 trend bullish, pulled back from the supply box.

Disclaimer

This post is for education only and is not financial advice. Gold and forex trading carry high risk; news can cause gaps, slippage and wide spreads, especially around data releases and election results.

Levels are based on EFMS TRADE's daily analysis (GOLD WEDNESDAY PREDICTION | 04 NOVEMBER 2026 | XAUUSD GOLD PRICE FORECAST) with the weekly plan for 2–6 Nov as context (this week's outlook). Reference price: Swissquote XAU/USD bid 3,943.30 at 09:06 PKT (23:06 New York time, Tuesday).