Gold & Forex Daily Brief: Tue 3 Nov 2026 (US Midterms)

Today's bias: SELL rallies. Gold is at 3,921 (Kitco spot bid 3,920.70, 11:09 PKT), down 25.00 (−0.63%) on the day, between the 3976–4001 weekly sell zone above and 3840–3875 weekly demand below. The weekly turning point is 3840.

Gold gave back part of Monday's bounce in Asia. Kitco shows a range of 3,916.00 to 3,965.50 so far today. Earlier, Indian bullion desks had spot near $3,940, down about 0.5% at 08:41 PKT, with silver down 2% near $49.70 (Goodreturns). Monday's rally came from oil: Brent fell 7.6% to close at $104.77 and WTI 7.4% to $96.46 after the US and Iran signalled openness to talks, which pulled the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.90% (Mitrade). Against that, US ISM Manufacturing beat at 55.5 (54.7 expected) with prices paid still high at 75.2, keeping the odds of a December Fed hike as high as 75% (Mitrade).

This morning the dollar index is up 0.1% at 101.81, recovering from a one-month low, and the 10-year yield is up 2.1 basis points at 4.913%. Asian stocks fell (MSCI Asia ex-Japan −0.9%), Brent is flat near $104.72, and the Wall Street Journal reported a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz even as Iran–Qatar talks continue (The Star / Reuters). Today is the US midterm vote: prediction markets put the chance of Democrats controlling the Senate at about 75% (The Star / Reuters). Results arrive during the Pakistan night, so expect wider spreads and gaps into Wednesday's Asian session.

There is no EFMS daily plan for 3 Nov yet, so today's levels come from EFMS TRADE's weekly outlook for 2–6 Nov (this week's outlook). One change since Monday: the weekly plan says an H1 close above 3950 cancels the 3940–3950 "trapped buyers" sell, and on Monday the 19:00 PKT H1 candle closed at 3964.2 (COMEX futures shifted to spot). That setup is off, so the next weekly sell is the 3976–4001 retracement zone.

Today's signals

None of these is live until its trigger. Zones, stops, targets, R:R and triggers are exactly as in the weekly plan (R:R at the second target). The breakdown sell (H4 or daily close below 3840) and Demand 3 at 3756–3790 are too far from price for today. Every signal stays on this week's signal results.

Price against the weekly plan

Price sits in the middle of the weekly map. The retracement sell is about $55 higher, above today's 3,965.50 high on Kitco, so it needs a fresh push up, for example on the midterm results or a soft JOLTS number. The Demand 1 buy is about $46 lower and needs a sweep and a close back above on M15 or H1, not a blind buy. See this week's outlook for the full weekly map.

News today (Pakistan time)

Times from Finviz (10:00 New York time), converted to PKT. Consensus: JOLTS 7.13M (previous 7.079M), factory orders +1.2% (previous +0.1%). US clocks are back on standard time, so US data at 8:30 New York time comes at 18:30 PKT; London opens at 13:00 PKT. Next: ADP employment Wednesday at 18:15 PKT, and the October jobs report Friday at 18:30 PKT. Stay flat 15 minutes either side of high-impact releases.

Headlines

• Gold: Kitco spot bid 3,920.70 at 11:09 PKT, −0.63%, range 3,916.00–3,965.50 (Kitco).
• Oil / Iran: Brent −7.6% to $104.77 on Monday on hopes of US–Iran talks (Mitrade); WSJ reports a US strike on Qeshm Island (The Star / Reuters).
• Dollar / yields: DXY +0.1% to 101.81, US 10-year 4.913% (The Star / Reuters).
• Fed: ISM Manufacturing 55.5, prices paid 75.2; December hike odds up to 75% (Mitrade).

Other markets

• DXY: EFMS weekly: a weekly close above 102.2 opens 103.2–103.5. Now 101.81.
• XAGUSD: EFMS weekly: sell only, sell rallies at 54–55; targets 46 and 45. Spot near $49.70.
• BTCUSD: EFMS weekly: sell from 79–80K. Bitcoin is near $77,100 after $4.72 billion of net withdrawals from Binance following last week's hack (The Star / Reuters).
• USOIL: EFMS weekly: range trade, below 96 targets 87. WTI closed Monday at $96.46, right on that line.

Disclaimer

This post is for education only and is not financial advice. Gold and forex trading carry high risk; news can cause gaps, slippage and wide spreads, especially around data releases and overnight election results.

Levels are based on EFMS TRADE's weekly outlook for 2–6 Nov (this week's outlook). Reference price: Kitco spot bid 3,920.70 at 11:09 PKT (01:09 New York time).