Gold & Forex Daily Brief: Thu 29 Oct 2026 (GDP, PCE & ECB)

Today's bias: SELL rallies below 4046. Gold is at 4,027 (Swissquote XAU/USD mid 4,027.09, 11:22 PKT), back under the weekly 4046 turning point after giving up its post-Fed spike.

The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% last night in a 10–2 vote; Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack wanted a 25 bp hike (Kitco). Chair Warsh said the Fed has shown its "willingness and readiness to act", and markets now price about an 85% chance of a December hike, up from about 78% on Tuesday (Reuters via Lufkin Daily News).

Gold whipsawed on the decision: it dipped to about 4,023 at 23:30 PKT, then ran to about 4,083 just after 01:00 PKT (COMEX futures on a spot basis), before sliding back to 4,020–4,027 this morning. Comex gold opened Asia at 4,081.40 and was near 4,050 by 10:00 PKT, with a stronger dollar and higher-for-longer rate talk weighing (Business Standard). Oil stays high after an attack on a Saudi refinery: Brent settled at $115.32 and WTI at $102.78 (Reuters via Lufkin Daily News).

No new EFMS daily plan was published today, so today's plan comes from EFMS TRADE's weekly outlook for 26–30 Oct (this week's outlook). One caution: H4 candles closed above 4046 on Tuesday and again at the Fed, which the weekly plan calls a trend-change warning. Price is back below it now, so the sell-the-rallies plan still holds while 4046 caps, but a fresh H4 close above 4046 would end it.

Today's signals

None of these is live until its trigger. Both come straight from the weekly plan; R:R is measured from the middle of the entry zone to the second target. The weekly H4 resistance sell (4020–4040) was a Monday gap-up setup, so we don't re-issue it today, and the 3941–3952 buy is too far away unless the data spikes price down there. Every signal stays on this week's signal results.

Wednesday's results: the scalp sell at 4058–4064 reached TP1 4033 after the Fed, then price came back to entry, so it closed at break-even. The retest buy at 4024–4033 also hit TP1 and then came back to entry (break-even). The sell below 4052.9 is unverified: price retested the zone, but M30 candles closed just above 4052.9, so we can't confirm the trigger. Read one way it was stopped; read the other it never triggered. It stays off the score.

Price against the weekly plan

Closest to triggering is the H1 break buy at 4002–4008, about $20 below price; it needs price to dip into the zone and hold H1 closes above 4001.8. The 4058–4080 sell needs a rally of about $30 first, which today's US data can easily deliver.

News today (Pakistan time)

US data at 8:30 ET and the ECB at 14:15 CET (Traderfactor, Admiral Markets). Consensus: GDP about 3.2% annualised, core PCE about 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y; the ECB is expected to hold its deposit rate at 2.50%. London opens at 13:00 PKT now that the UK is on GMT. Stay flat 15 minutes either side of high-impact releases; 17:30 and 18:15 are only 45 minutes apart, so expect a volatile hour.

Headlines

• Fed: Held at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote, with two dissents for a hike (Kitco).
• Rate bets: About 85% odds of a December hike after Warsh's "readiness to act" (Reuters via Lufkin Daily News).
• Dollar / yields: Dollar index near 102.2 and the US 10-year near 5.05% early Thursday (Traderfactor).
• Oil: Brent $115.32, WTI $102.78 after an attack on a Saudi refinery (Reuters via Lufkin Daily News).

Other markets

• EURUSD: About 1.113 into the ECB; a hold is expected (Traderfactor).
• USDJPY: Near 158.0 ahead of Friday's Bank of Japan decision (Traderfactor).
• XAGUSD: Weekly plan: no trade now; sell only from 55 and 58.
• BTCUSD: Weekly plan: more selling from 81–82K; buy only at 76K or 74K.

Disclaimer

This post is for education only and is not financial advice. Gold and forex trading carry high risk; news can cause gaps, slippage and wide spreads, especially around GDP, PCE and central bank decisions.

Levels are based on EFMS TRADE's weekly analysis for 26–30 Oct 2026 (see this week's outlook). Reference price: Swissquote XAU/USD mid 4,027.09 at 11:22 PKT. Overnight highs and lows are COMEX gold futures (GC=F) shifted to spot.