Gold & Forex Daily Brief: Mon 26 Oct 2026

Today's bias: SELL rallies. Gold is at 4,007 (Kitco spot bid 4,006.90, 09:02 PKT), between the 3994.6 turning point and the 4023–4034 sell zone.

Gold starts Fed week with a small bounce after a weekly drop of about 4% (NordFX). Spot slipped to about 3,995 early in the Asian session (FXStreet), then recovered: Kitco shows +12.00 (+0.30%) on the day, with a range of 3,977.90 to 4,017.40 so far. Indian bullion desks reported spot above 4,015 around 08:30 PKT (Goodreturns).

The pressure has not gone away. Oil is high because of the Gulf conflict, and that keeps rate-hike bets alive: CME FedWatch shows a 90.6% chance the Fed holds on Wednesday but a 79.4% chance of a hike in December (FXStreet). Higher expected rates weigh on a metal that pays no interest, which is why sellers still lead.

Today's plan comes from EFMS TRADE's daily gold plan for 26 Oct (GOLD MARKET OUTLOOK, OCT 26, 2026), which replaces the weekly levels for today. EFMS expects a Monday range before the Fed: no chasing at the current price, sell a rejection at 4023–4034, and buy only after a sweep of the lows and a close back above.

Today's signals

None of these is live until its trigger. R:R is measured from the middle of the entry zone to the second target. Every signal stays on this week's signal results with what happened next.

Price against the weekly plan

The closest weekly setup is the H4 resistance sell at 4020–4040; today's best sell sits inside it with a tighter stop. Price needs to rise about 16 points into the zone and then reject. The weekly bias stays sell rallies below 4046. See this week's outlook for every zone.

News today (Pakistan time)

No high-impact US, euro or UK releases today. The big days are later in the week: the Fed decides on Wednesday at 23:00 PKT (18:00 UTC), and US Q3 GDP and the ECB decision follow on Thursday (Rio Times). Stay flat 15 minutes either side of high-impact releases.

Headlines

• Fed: Markets price a 90.6% chance of a hold this week and a 79.4% chance of a December hike, per CME FedWatch (FXStreet).
• Oil / geopolitics: Brent eased 1% to $115.48 in early Asian trade after settling above $117 last week (CNBC TV18 via TradingView). WTI hit a five-month high after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, and President Trump said it is "decision time" on Iran (FXStreet).
• Dollar: The dollar index ended last week near 101.6, close to a three-week low, as lower Treasury yields offset safe-haven demand (NordFX). MUFG warns long-dollar positions have built up before the FOMC (MUFG Research).
• Yields: The US 10-year yield was 4.96% on Thursday, down from 5.09% a week earlier (FXEmpire); MUFG says yields rose modestly again on Friday.

Other markets

• EURUSD: Closed Friday at 1.1203. Range 1.1100–1.1270 this week, with the 2026 low at 1.1113 as support (NordFX).
• XAGUSD: Silver is up about 1% above $54 (Goodreturns). EFMS: not tradable; if anything, buy with a stop below 52 or sell from 55.
• BTCUSD: Closed Friday near $80,797 (NordFX). EFMS: no trade inside the descending channel; buy 76–77K, sell 83–84K.
• USOIL: EFMS: buy 100–99, add at 96 after a sweep and close back above; target 103.

Disclaimer

This post is for education only and is not financial advice. Gold and forex trading carry high risk; news can cause gaps, slippage and wide spreads.

Levels are based on EFMS TRADE's analysis (GOLD MARKET OUTLOOK | OCT 26, 2026 | XAUUSD FORECAST BY EFMS TRADE). Stops, targets and triggers are as EFMS gave them; R:R is our own calculation. Reference price: Kitco spot gold 4,006.90 bid at 09:02 PKT.