# Gold Weekly Outlook 26–30 Oct 2026: FOMC Week Levels and Trade Signals

Source: https://fxdaily.news/blog/gold-weekly-outlook-26-30-oct-2026
Published: 2026-10-25 · Updated: 2026-10-25 · Type: Weekly outlook

**What is the gold (XAUUSD) outlook for 26–30 Oct 2026?** Gold's bias for 26–30 Oct 2026 is sell rallies below the 4046 turning point, after a close at 3,996. The main sell zone is 4103–4140 with a stop at 4158. The main buy zone is 3941–3952 with a stop at 3925, only after its trigger. Key events: FOMC rate decision (presser 23:30) Wed 23:00 PKT and GDP + PCE + jobless claims Thu 17:30 PKT.

## Zones (data)

| Zone | Side | Range |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Sell zone 1 | Sell | 4103–4140 |
| H4 OB sell | Sell | 4058–4080 |
| H4 resistance | Sell | 4020–4040 |
| Demand 1 | Buy | 3941–3970 |
| Demand 2 | Buy | 3835–3865 |
| Demand 3 | Buy | 3756–3790 |

**Bias: SELL rallies.** Gold closed at **3,996**; the turning point is **4046**.

Gold enters FOMC week in a downtrend, so the plan is to sell rallies into 4103–4140 and buy only after the 3941 yearly low is swept and reclaimed. Spot gold closed Friday at 3,995.81, below the psychological 4,000 level for the first time in months.

Two things drove last week's sell-off. Oil spiked on tension in the Gulf, which revived inflation worries and pushed expectations toward tighter Fed policy. At the same time, the daily chart kept printing lower highs.

This week has the heaviest calendar of the month: the Fed decides rates on Wednesday (markets price roughly a 90% chance of a hold), and Q3 GDP plus PCE inflation land on Thursday.

## Key levels


| Zone | Type | Range |
| --- | --- | --- |
| SELL ZONE 1 (best) daily OB 4103-4140 | Sell | 4103–4140 |
| H4 OB sell 4058-4080 (after close above 4022) | Sell | 4058–4080 |
| H4 resistance 4020-4040 (Monday) | Sell | 4020–4040 |
| DEMAND 1 3941-3970 (best buy 3941-3952 after sweep) | Buy | 3941–3970 |
| DEMAND 2 3835-3865 | Buy | 3835–3865 |
| DEMAND 3 3756-3790 | Buy | 3756–3790 |

## Trade signals

None of these is live at the current price: each needs price to reach its zone and show the trigger.

| # | Signal | Entry | Stop loss | Targets | R:R (TP2) | Trigger |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | SELL (favorite) | 4103–4140 | 4158 | 4040 / 4002 / 3970 | 3.27R | rejection, no daily close above 4140 |
| 2 | SELL (H4 resist) | 4020–4040 | 4052 | 4002 / 3970 / 3952 | 2.73R | Mon gap-up rejection, H4 not above 4046 |
| 3 | SELL (H4 OB) | 4058–4080 | 4095 | 4022 / 4002 | 2.58R | only after close above 4022 |
| 4 | BUY (favorite) | 3941–3952 | 3925 | 3978 / 4002 / 4040 | 2.58R | sweep below 3941 + H1/H4 close back above |
| 5 | BUY (H1 break) | 4002–4008 | 3988 | 4020 / 4040 | 2.06R | H1 close above 4001.8, exit into 4020-4040 |
| 6 | SELL (breakdown) | 3941–3950 | 3965 | 3900 / 3870 / 3835 | 3.87R | H4 close below 3941, sell the retrace only |

Take partial profit at the first target and move the stop to break-even.

## Risk to reward


## What flips the bias

- **4046**: TURNING POINT - H4 close above = trend change
- **4140**: Daily close above = stop selling tops
- **4002**: H1 break above 4001.8 = buy trigger
- **4022**: Close above = sell 4058-4080

| Scenario | If | Then |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Bearish (base case) | Price spikes into 3940–3976, or a hawkish Fed lifts the dollar and yields | Sell rallies into 4020–4040 and 4103–4140; let 3941 get swept before any buy |
| Bullish | Price closes above 4022–4040 and the Fed sounds less hawkish | Price can run to 4064 and 4094; sell only at 4058–4080 or 4103–4140 |
| Breakdown | 3941 breaks and is not reclaimed | Expect 3870–3833, then 3790–3756; buy only on rejection there |

## News times (Pakistan time, PKT)

| Time | Event |
| --- | --- |
| 19:30 | Mon Dallas Fed Mfg |
| 17:30 | Tue Durable Goods |
| 19:00 | Tue CB Confidence + New Home Sales |
| 23:00 | Wed FOMC (+23:30 presser) |
| 17:30 | Thu GDP + PCE + Claims |
| 18:15 | Thu ECB |
| 17:30 | Fri ECI |

Stay flat 15 minutes either side of high-impact releases. Confirm times on an economic calendar.

## Other markets

- **BTCUSD**: More selling from 81-82K; buy only at 76K/74K
- **XAGUSD**: No trade now; sell only from 55 and 58
- **USOIL**: Do not buy at ~103 (resistance); buy only from 100

## Disclaimer

This post is for education only and is not financial advice. Gold and forex trading carry high risk; news can cause gaps, slippage and wide spreads.

Levels are based on EFMS TRADE's analysis ([GOLD WEEKLY FORECAST 26–30 OCTOBER 2026 | FOMC + PCE NEWS | XAUUSD BUY OR SELL?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxnHICimTtw)). Stops and risk-to-reward are our own. Reference price: OANDA XAUUSD 3,996.

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Education only, not financial advice. FXDaily.news (FXD) is a free forex and gold news website for traders in Pakistan, also on Instagram as @fxnewsdaily.