# Gold & Forex Daily Brief: Wed 4 Nov 2026 (Midterms, ADP, ISM)

Source: https://fxdaily.news/blog/gold-forex-daily-brief-2026-11-04
Published: 2026-11-04 · Updated: 2026-11-04 · Type: Daily brief

**What is gold doing today, Wed 4 Nov 2026?** Gold (XAUUSD) traded at 3,943 at 09:06 PKT on Wed 4 Nov 2026. The bias is buy dips with the turning point at 3930. High-impact news today: US midterm results (all day) at — PKT and US ADP employment (Oct) at 18:15 PKT.

**Today's bias: BUY dips.** Gold is at **3,943** ([Swissquote](https://www.swissquote.com/) XAU/USD bid 3,943.30, 09:06 PKT), above today's **3930** turning point, with buyers waiting at **3900–3911** and sellers at **3984–3998**.

Gold firmed overnight as the dollar slipped on early US midterm results. Reuters had spot gold up 0.1% at $3,931.24 at 08:06 PKT, with silver down 1.3% at $49.12 ([MarketScreener / Reuters](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/gold-rises-as-dollar-weakens-ahead-of-us-midterm-election-results-ce785fdede8cf620)). In Asia, spot jumped above $3,964 before falling back below $3,940 ([Goodreturns](https://www.goodreturns.in/news/gold-rates-silver-rates-today-4-11-2026-live-spot-gold-mcx-gold-silver-price-24k-22k-18k-gold-prices-1545099.html)). Pepperstone's Chris Weston said a weaker dollar and a sharp fall in nominal and real Treasury yields are supporting gold, and StoneX's Matt Simpson called $4,000 the obvious resistance ([MarketScreener / Reuters](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/gold-rises-as-dollar-weakens-ahead-of-us-midterm-election-results-ce785fdede8cf620)).

Democrats won Senate seats in South Carolina and North Carolina, two of the four they need to net for control, and prediction markets moved toward a Democratic sweep of Congress. The dollar index fell 0.3% to 101.4, the euro rose 0.5% to $1.1249 and the yen firmed to 157.63 per dollar ([Yahoo Finance / Reuters](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/currencies/articles/dollar-drops-sharply-democrats-early-034310225.html)). The Fed still weighs on gold: CME FedWatch shows a 78% chance of a December rate hike, Iran and the US remain far from a deal, and the October jobs report comes on Friday ([MarketScreener / Reuters](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/gold-rises-as-dollar-weakens-ahead-of-us-midterm-election-results-ce785fdede8cf620)).

Today's plan comes from **EFMS TRADE's daily gold plan for 4 Nov** ([GOLD WEDNESDAY PREDICTION | 04 NOVEMBER 2026](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKsYTMrIEPg)), which replaces the weekly levels for today. Turning point **3929.88**: above it, buyers are in control. The H1 trend is bullish inside a rising triangle, and the chart drawing shows a dip into 3911–3900 (previous day's low and trendline), then a push toward the previous day's high near 3970 and the 3984–3998 selling zone. H4 is still below the 3976–4001 fib zone, so sells are only for a rejection there. The video had no transcript yet, so levels were read from the chart drawings and are approximate.

## Today's signals

| Setup | Entry | Stop | Targets | R:R | Trigger |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Buy · PDL trendline dip | 3900–3911 | 3888 | 3930 / 3970 | 3.69R | Dip into 3911–3900 holds the H1 trendline; bullish rejection on M15/M30 |
| Buy · Buy scalp | 3875–3884 | 3864 | 3911 / 3930 | 3.26R | Bullish rejection in 3875–3884 |
| Sell · Selling zone | 3984–3998 | 4012 | 3930 / 3911 | 3.81R | Rejection in 3984–3998, below the H4 fib 61.8% at 4001 |

None of these is live until its trigger. Zones, stops, targets and triggers are exactly as in today's plan (R:R at the second target). The upper sell at 4020–4040, the 3846–3865 demand zone and the breakdown sell below 3846 are too far from price for today. Every signal stays on [this week's signal results](https://fxdaily.news/signals).

## Price against the weekly plan

| Level | What it means today |
| --- | --- |
| 3984–3998 | Today's sell zone, inside the weekly 3976–4001 retracement sell. Sell only a rejection. |
| 3970 | Previous day's high and the buy's second target. |
| 3,943 | Price now (Swissquote, 09:06 PKT). |
| 3930 | Today's turning point (3929.88): above it, buy dips. |
| 3900–3911 | Today's main buy: previous day's low and H1 trendline. |
| 3875–3884 | Buy scalp, just above the weekly 3840–3875 demand. |
| 3840 | Weekly turning point. An H4 or daily close below opens 3790, then 3674 / 3631. |

The weekly bias is still SELL rallies, but today's daily plan leans the other way while price holds above 3930. The **PDL trendline buy** is about $32 lower and needs a bullish M15/M30 rejection, not a blind limit order. The **selling zone** is about $41 higher, above the overnight spike past 3,964, so it needs a fresh push, for example on soft US data. Yesterday's two weekly signals expired without trading. See [this week's outlook](https://fxdaily.news/blog/gold-weekly-outlook-2-6-nov-2026) for the full weekly map.

## News today (Pakistan time)

| Time | Event | Impact |
| --- | --- | --- |
| All day | US midterm results still coming in | High |
| 18:15 | US ADP employment change (Oct) | High |
| 18:30 | US trade balance (Sep) | Low |
| 19:45 | US S&P Global services PMI, final (Oct) | Low |
| 20:00 | US ISM services PMI (Oct) | High |
| 20:30 | EIA crude oil inventories | Medium |

Times and consensus from [ZeroHedge's week-ahead calendar](https://zerohedge.com/economics/key-events-week-midterms-jobs-earnings-central-banks-and-more) (New York time, converted to PKT): ADP +67k expected (last +90k), ISM services 54.9 expected (last 54.9), trade balance −$108.0bn. US data at 8:30 New York time comes at **18:30 PKT**; London opens at **13:00 PKT**. Next: the Bank of England decision and US jobless claims on Thursday, and the October jobs report on Friday at 18:30 PKT (+62k expected). Stay flat 15 minutes either side of high-impact releases.

## Headlines

- **Gold:** Spot +0.1% at $3,931.24 at 08:06 PKT; $4,000 seen as the obvious resistance ([MarketScreener / Reuters](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/gold-rises-as-dollar-weakens-ahead-of-us-midterm-election-results-ce785fdede8cf620)).
- **Midterms / dollar:** Democrats win Senate races in South Carolina and North Carolina; DXY −0.3% to 101.4 ([Yahoo Finance / Reuters](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/currencies/articles/dollar-drops-sharply-democrats-early-034310225.html)).
- **Fed:** December hike odds at 78% on CME FedWatch ([MarketScreener / Reuters](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/gold-rises-as-dollar-weakens-ahead-of-us-midterm-election-results-ce785fdede8cf620)).
- **Rates / oil:** The RBA raised rates 25 bp to 4.85% on Tuesday; WTI steadied around $96–97 and the US 10-year yield climbed toward 4.97% on the day ([Mitrade](https://mitrade.com/au/insights/daily-market-outlook/news-today/market-news-today-australia-261104)).

## Other markets

- **DXY:** EFMS: the 101.9–102.0 selling zone rejected; demand near 101.5. Now 101.4, just under it.
- **XAGUSD:** Not covered by EFMS today. Silver −1.3% at $49.12.
- **BTCUSD:** EFMS: H4 swing buy area near 75,800–76,000, fib 61.8% near 79,700 above.
- **USOIL:** EFMS: H4 trend bullish, pulled back from the supply box.

## Disclaimer

This post is for education only and is not financial advice. Gold and forex trading carry high risk; news can cause gaps, slippage and wide spreads, especially around data releases and election results.

Levels are based on EFMS TRADE's daily analysis ([GOLD WEDNESDAY PREDICTION | 04 NOVEMBER 2026 | XAUUSD GOLD PRICE FORECAST](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKsYTMrIEPg)) with the weekly plan for 2–6 Nov as context ([this week's outlook](https://fxdaily.news/blog/gold-weekly-outlook-2-6-nov-2026)). Reference price: Swissquote XAU/USD bid 3,943.30 at 09:06 PKT (23:06 New York time, Tuesday).

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Education only, not financial advice. FXDaily.news (FXD) is a free forex and gold news website for traders in Pakistan, also on Instagram as @fxnewsdaily.