# Gold & Forex Daily Brief: Thu 29 Oct 2026 (GDP, PCE & ECB)

Source: https://fxdaily.news/blog/gold-forex-daily-brief-2026-10-29
Published: 2026-10-29 · Updated: 2026-10-29 · Type: Daily brief

**What is gold doing today, Thu 29 Oct 2026?** Gold (XAUUSD) traded at 4,027 at 11:22 PKT on Thu 29 Oct 2026. The bias is sell rallies with the turning point at 4046. High-impact news today: US Q3 GDP + September PCE at 17:30 PKT and ECB rate decision at 18:15 PKT.

**Today's bias: SELL rallies below 4046.** Gold is at **4,027** ([Swissquote](https://www.swissquote.com/) XAU/USD mid 4,027.09, 11:22 PKT), back under the weekly **4046** turning point after giving up its post-Fed spike.

The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% last night in a 10–2 vote; Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack wanted a 25 bp hike ([Kitco](https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-10-28/gold-price-drops-4035oz-fed-votes-10-2-favor-rate-hold)). Chair Warsh said the Fed has shown its "willingness and readiness to act", and markets now price about an 85% chance of a December hike, up from about 78% on Tuesday ([Reuters via Lufkin Daily News](https://lufkindailynews.com/news_reuters/business/global-stocks-hold-gains-after-fed-decision-oil-prices-rise/article_83a86c22-7fed-5223-a82f-bc1d7c12ea30.html)).

Gold whipsawed on the decision: it dipped to about 4,023 at 23:30 PKT, then ran to about 4,083 just after 01:00 PKT (COMEX futures on a spot basis), before sliding back to 4,020–4,027 this morning. Comex gold opened Asia at 4,081.40 and was near 4,050 by 10:00 PKT, with a stronger dollar and higher-for-longer rate talk weighing ([Business Standard](https://www.business-standard.com/amp/markets/commodities/gold-silver-open-weak-after-fed-keeps-rates-unchanged-prices-volatile-126102900370_1.html)). Oil stays high after an attack on a Saudi refinery: Brent settled at $115.32 and WTI at $102.78 ([Reuters via Lufkin Daily News](https://lufkindailynews.com/news_reuters/business/global-stocks-hold-gains-after-fed-decision-oil-prices-rise/article_83a86c22-7fed-5223-a82f-bc1d7c12ea30.html)).

No new EFMS daily plan was published today, so today's plan comes from **EFMS TRADE's weekly outlook for 26–30 Oct** ([this week's outlook](https://fxdaily.news/blog/gold-weekly-outlook-26-30-oct-2026)). One caution: H4 candles closed above 4046 on Tuesday and again at the Fed, which the weekly plan calls a trend-change warning. Price is back below it now, so the sell-the-rallies plan still holds while 4046 caps, but a fresh H4 close above 4046 would end it.

## Today's signals

| Setup | Entry | Stop | Targets | R:R | Trigger |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sell · H4 order block | 4058–4080 | 4095 | 4022 / 4002 | 2.58R | Only after a close above 4022 |
| Buy · H1 break | 4002–4008 | 3988 | 4020 / 4040 | 2.06R | H1 close above 4001.8; exit into 4020–4040 |

None of these is live until its trigger. Both come straight from the weekly plan; R:R is measured from the middle of the entry zone to the second target. The weekly H4 resistance sell (4020–4040) was a Monday gap-up setup, so we don't re-issue it today, and the 3941–3952 buy is too far away unless the data spikes price down there. Every signal stays on [this week's signal results](https://fxdaily.news/signals).

**Wednesday's results:** the scalp sell at 4058–4064 reached TP1 4033 after the Fed, then price came back to entry, so it closed at **break-even**. The retest buy at 4024–4033 also hit TP1 and then came back to entry (break-even). The sell below 4052.9 is **unverified**: price retested the zone, but M30 candles closed just above 4052.9, so we can't confirm the trigger. Read one way it was stopped; read the other it never triggered. It stays off the score.

## Price against the weekly plan

| Level | What it means today |
| --- | --- |
| 4103–4140 | Sell zone 1, the week's favourite sell. A daily close above 4140 ends the sell-the-tops idea. |
| 4058–4080 | H4 order block sell; overnight high was about 4,083. |
| 4046 | Weekly turning point. An H4 close above means trend change. |
| 4,027 | Price now (Swissquote, 11:22 PKT), inside the 4020–4040 H4 resistance zone. |
| 4002–4008 | H1 break buy zone, above 4001.8. |
| 3941–3952 | Best buy, only after a sweep below 3941 and a close back above. |

Closest to triggering is the **H1 break buy at 4002–4008**, about $20 below price; it needs price to dip into the zone and hold H1 closes above 4001.8. The **4058–4080 sell** needs a rally of about $30 first, which today's US data can easily deliver.

## News today (Pakistan time)

| Time | Event | Impact |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 17:30 | US Q3 GDP (advance) | High |
| 17:30 | US September PCE + core PCE | High |
| 17:30 | US jobless claims | Medium |
| 18:15 | ECB rate decision | High |
| 18:45 | ECB press conference (Lagarde) | Medium |

US data at 8:30 ET and the ECB at 14:15 CET ([Traderfactor](https://traderfactor.com/dollar-steadies-after-fed-hold-pce-focus/), [Admiral Markets](https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/ecb-meeting-october-2026)). Consensus: GDP about 3.2% annualised, core PCE about 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y; the ECB is expected to hold its deposit rate at 2.50%. London opens at **13:00 PKT** now that the UK is on GMT. Stay flat 15 minutes either side of high-impact releases; 17:30 and 18:15 are only 45 minutes apart, so expect a volatile hour.

## Headlines

- **Fed:** Held at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote, with two dissents for a hike ([Kitco](https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-10-28/gold-price-drops-4035oz-fed-votes-10-2-favor-rate-hold)).
- **Rate bets:** About 85% odds of a December hike after Warsh's "readiness to act" ([Reuters via Lufkin Daily News](https://lufkindailynews.com/news_reuters/business/global-stocks-hold-gains-after-fed-decision-oil-prices-rise/article_83a86c22-7fed-5223-a82f-bc1d7c12ea30.html)).
- **Dollar / yields:** Dollar index near 102.2 and the US 10-year near 5.05% early Thursday ([Traderfactor](https://traderfactor.com/dollar-steadies-after-fed-hold-pce-focus/)).
- **Oil:** Brent $115.32, WTI $102.78 after an attack on a Saudi refinery ([Reuters via Lufkin Daily News](https://lufkindailynews.com/news_reuters/business/global-stocks-hold-gains-after-fed-decision-oil-prices-rise/article_83a86c22-7fed-5223-a82f-bc1d7c12ea30.html)).

## Other markets

- **EURUSD:** About 1.113 into the ECB; a hold is expected ([Traderfactor](https://traderfactor.com/dollar-steadies-after-fed-hold-pce-focus/)).
- **USDJPY:** Near 158.0 ahead of Friday's Bank of Japan decision ([Traderfactor](https://traderfactor.com/dollar-steadies-after-fed-hold-pce-focus/)).
- **XAGUSD:** Weekly plan: no trade now; sell only from 55 and 58.
- **BTCUSD:** Weekly plan: more selling from 81–82K; buy only at 76K or 74K.

## Disclaimer

This post is for education only and is not financial advice. Gold and forex trading carry high risk; news can cause gaps, slippage and wide spreads, especially around GDP, PCE and central bank decisions.

Levels are based on EFMS TRADE's weekly analysis for 26–30 Oct 2026 (see [this week's outlook](https://fxdaily.news/blog/gold-weekly-outlook-26-30-oct-2026)). Reference price: Swissquote XAU/USD mid 4,027.09 at 11:22 PKT. Overnight highs and lows are COMEX gold futures (GC=F) shifted to spot.

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Education only, not financial advice. FXDaily.news (FXD) is a free forex and gold news website for traders in Pakistan, also on Instagram as @fxnewsdaily.