# Gold & Forex Daily Brief: Mon 26 Oct 2026

Source: https://fxdaily.news/blog/gold-forex-daily-brief-2026-10-26
Published: 2026-10-26 · Updated: 2026-10-26 · Type: Daily brief

**What is gold doing today, Mon 26 Oct 2026?** Gold (XAUUSD) traded at 4,007 at 09:02 PKT on Mon 26 Oct 2026. The bias is sell rallies with the turning point at 3994.6. There is no high-impact US news today.

**Today's bias: SELL rallies.** Gold is at **4,007** ([Kitco](https://www.kitco.com/charts/gold) spot bid 4,006.90, 09:02 PKT), between the **3994.6** turning point and the **4023–4034** sell zone.

Gold starts Fed week with a small bounce after a weekly drop of about 4% ([NordFX](https://nordfx.com/market-news/forex-cryptocurrency-forecast-october-26-30-2026)). Spot slipped to about 3,995 early in the Asian session ([FXStreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-below-4-000-as-higher-oil-prices-reinforce-fed-rate-hike-expectations-202610252324)), then recovered: Kitco shows +12.00 (+0.30%) on the day, with a range of 3,977.90 to 4,017.40 so far. Indian bullion desks reported spot above 4,015 around 08:30 PKT ([Goodreturns](https://www.goodreturns.in/news/gold-rates-silver-rates-today-26-10-2026-live-spot-gold-silver-price-mcx-gold-24k-22k-18k-gold-price-1543351.html)).

The pressure has not gone away. Oil is high because of the Gulf conflict, and that keeps rate-hike bets alive: CME FedWatch shows a 90.6% chance the Fed holds on Wednesday but a 79.4% chance of a hike in December ([FXStreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-below-4-000-as-higher-oil-prices-reinforce-fed-rate-hike-expectations-202610252324)). Higher expected rates weigh on a metal that pays no interest, which is why sellers still lead.

Today's plan comes from **EFMS TRADE's daily gold plan for 26 Oct** ([GOLD MARKET OUTLOOK, OCT 26, 2026](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKLZsFn2gxQ)), which replaces the weekly levels for today. EFMS expects a Monday range before the Fed: no chasing at the current price, sell a rejection at 4023–4034, and buy only after a sweep of the lows and a close back above.

## Today's signals

| Setup | Entry | Stop | Targets | R:R | Trigger |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sell · Best sell | 4023–4034 | 4046 | 3995 / 3967 | 3.51R | Rejection in 4023–4034, no H4 close above |
| Sell · Below turning point | 3990–3995 | 4008 | 3967 / 3892 | 6.48R | Retest of 3994.6 from below |
| Buy · Breakout | 3995–4002 | 3984 | 4023 / 4030 | 2.17R | M30 close above 3994.6; exit into 4023–4034 |

None of these is live until its trigger. R:R is measured from the middle of the entry zone to the second target. Every signal stays on [this week's signal results](https://fxdaily.news/signals) with what happened next.

## Price against the weekly plan

| Level | What it means today |
| --- | --- |
| 4046 | Weekly turning point and the stop for today's best sell. An H4 close above means trend change. |
| 4023–4034 | Best sell today, inside the weekly H4 resistance (4020–4040). |
| 4,007 | Price now (Kitco, 09:02 PKT). |
| 3994.6 | Daily turning point. An M30 close above favours a push up; below it, sell the retest. |
| 3958–3976 | H1 buy only after a sweep of Friday's spike low and a close back above. |
| 3941–3950 | Best buy: a sweep of the 2026 low, then a close back above. |

The closest weekly setup is the H4 resistance sell at 4020–4040; today's best sell sits inside it with a tighter stop. Price needs to rise about 16 points into the zone and then reject. The weekly bias stays sell rallies below 4046. See [this week's outlook](https://fxdaily.news/blog/gold-weekly-outlook-26-30-oct-2026) for every zone.

## News today (Pakistan time)

| Time | Event | Impact |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 19:30 | Dallas Fed manufacturing (US) | Medium |

No high-impact US, euro or UK releases today. The big days are later in the week: the Fed decides on **Wednesday at 23:00 PKT** (18:00 UTC), and US Q3 GDP and the ECB decision follow on Thursday ([Rio Times](https://www.riotimesonline.com/key-market-events-for-the-week-of-october-26-30-2026)). Stay flat 15 minutes either side of high-impact releases.

## Headlines

- **Fed:** Markets price a 90.6% chance of a hold this week and a 79.4% chance of a December hike, per CME FedWatch ([FXStreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-below-4-000-as-higher-oil-prices-reinforce-fed-rate-hike-expectations-202610252324)).
- **Oil / geopolitics:** Brent eased 1% to $115.48 in early Asian trade after settling above $117 last week ([CNBC TV18 via TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/news/cnbctv:2d881ff4f094b:0/)). WTI hit a five-month high after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, and President Trump said it is "decision time" on Iran ([FXStreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-below-4-000-as-higher-oil-prices-reinforce-fed-rate-hike-expectations-202610252324)).
- **Dollar:** The dollar index ended last week near 101.6, close to a three-week low, as lower Treasury yields offset safe-haven demand ([NordFX](https://nordfx.com/market-news/forex-cryptocurrency-forecast-october-26-30-2026)). MUFG warns long-dollar positions have built up before the FOMC ([MUFG Research](https://www.mufgresearch.com/fx/asia-fx-talk-26-october-2026)).
- **Yields:** The US 10-year yield was 4.96% on Thursday, down from 5.09% a week earlier ([FXEmpire](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-defends-4000-after-bounce-as-fed-signals-take-center-stage-1640086)); MUFG says yields rose modestly again on Friday.

## Other markets

- **EURUSD:** Closed Friday at 1.1203. Range 1.1100–1.1270 this week, with the 2026 low at 1.1113 as support ([NordFX](https://nordfx.com/market-news/forex-cryptocurrency-forecast-october-26-30-2026)).
- **XAGUSD:** Silver is up about 1% above $54 ([Goodreturns](https://www.goodreturns.in/news/gold-rates-silver-rates-today-26-10-2026-live-spot-gold-silver-price-mcx-gold-24k-22k-18k-gold-price-1543351.html)). EFMS: not tradable; if anything, buy with a stop below 52 or sell from 55.
- **BTCUSD:** Closed Friday near $80,797 ([NordFX](https://nordfx.com/market-news/forex-cryptocurrency-forecast-october-26-30-2026)). EFMS: no trade inside the descending channel; buy 76–77K, sell 83–84K.
- **USOIL:** EFMS: buy 100–99, add at 96 after a sweep and close back above; target 103.

## Disclaimer

This post is for education only and is not financial advice. Gold and forex trading carry high risk; news can cause gaps, slippage and wide spreads.

Levels are based on EFMS TRADE's analysis ([GOLD MARKET OUTLOOK | OCT 26, 2026 | XAUUSD FORECAST BY EFMS TRADE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKLZsFn2gxQ)). Stops, targets and triggers are as EFMS gave them; R:R is our own calculation. Reference price: Kitco spot gold 4,006.90 bid at 09:02 PKT.

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Education only, not financial advice. FXDaily.news (FXD) is a free forex and gold news website for traders in Pakistan, also on Instagram as @fxnewsdaily.